Case study / Healthcare Analytics
Global Cancer Epidemiology & Clinical Survival Surveillance
A 30-year epidemiological investigation of 281,440 records across 26 Our World in Data datasets (1990–2019), modeling global mortality trajectories, cross-country health disparities, GDP elasticity, and 5-year clinical survival rates.
Problem
Global cancer mortality counts expanded by +75.3% between 1990 and 2019, leading to misinterpretations of healthcare efficacy. However, evaluating true oncology progress requires decomposing raw fatality surges from demographic population aging and age-standardized biological risk declines across 204 sovereign nations.
Data
The working records and data signals are described in the local project narrative below.
Approach
Ingested 26 heterogeneous Our World in Data CSV registries totaling 281,440 panel records. Built an end-to-end Python pipeline (scripts/process_cancer_data.py) to harmonize entities, normalize age-standardized rates (ASDR), cross-tabulate 29 malignancy sites, and model 5-year clinical survival across 59 sovereign nations.
System
26 CSV datasets across Our World in Data & IHME GBD (281,440 panel observations, 1990–2019)
→ISO entity mapping, ASDR demographic normalization, taxonomy mapping across 29 neoplasms
→High-density precomputed JSON payloads (content/data/cancer_epidemiology_master.json)
→Clinical survival matrix, 204-nation ranker, 30-year trend telemetry, and GDP elasticity
Epidemiological Surveillance Console • 1990–2019
Global Cancer Burden & Clinical Survival Intelligence
| Country | Prostate | Breast ▼ | Cervix | Colon | Rectum | Stomach | Leukaemia | Lung | Liver | Ovary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cyprus (CYP) | 93.1% | 90.6% | 64.5% | 58.1% | 70.2% | 26.3% | 61.3% | 15.4% | 9.8% | 43.2% |
| United States (USA) | 97.2% | 88.6% | 62.8% | 64.7% | 64% | 29.1% | 51.8% | 18.7% | 15.2% | 40.9% |
| Brazil (BRA) | 96.1% | 87.4% | 61.1% | 58.2% | 55.9% | 24.9% | 20.3% | 18% | 11.6% | 31.8% |
| Mauritius (MUS) | 77.3% | 87.4% | 86.7% | 55.5% | 68.9% | 40.7% | 57.2% | 37.2% | 52.6% | 82.7% |
| France (FRA) | 90.5% | 86.9% | 58.9% | 59.8% | 56.8% | 27.7% | 59.2% | 13.6% | 14.4% | 39% |
| Finland (FIN) | 93.2% | 86.8% | 65.3% | 62.9% | 62.9% | 25.2% | 50.7% | 12.3% | 7.9% | 44.9% |
| Israel (ISR) | 94% | 86.7% | 65.9% | 69.4% | 66.6% | 28.6% | 50.4% | 23.8% | 14.2% | 42% |
| Australia (AUS) | 88.5% | 86.2% | 67.1% | 64.2% | 64.2% | 27.9% | 51.1% | 15% | 14.7% | 37.5% |
| Italy (ITA) | 89.7% | 86.2% | 68.3% | 63.2% | 59.5% | 32.4% | 46.7% | 14.7% | 17.9% | 39.2% |
| Sweden (SWE) | 89.2% | 86.2% | 67.8% | 62.5% | 62% | 23.2% | 59.2% | 15.6% | 11.1% | 43.5% |
| Norway (NOR) | 86.3% | 85.9% | 71.4% | 61.8% | 64.6% | 24.1% | 53.6% | 15% | 9.5% | 40.3% |
| Canada (CAN) | 91.7% | 85.8% | 66.8% | 62.8% | 62.8% | 24.8% | 55.2% | 17.3% | 17.7% | 37.5% |
| Switzerland (CHE) | 88% | 85.5% | 65.4% | 63.3% | 63.8% | 30.4% | 58.1% | 16.5% | 13.6% | 37.7% |
| Belgium (BEL) | 92.6% | 85.4% | 65.2% | 64.6% | 64.7% | 33.4% | 59.4% | 16.6% | 19.6% | 43% |
| Germany (DEU) | 91.2% | 85.3% | 64.9% | 64.6% | 62.1% | 31.6% | 53.6% | 16.2% | 14.4% | 39.7% |
| Iceland (ISL) | 83.5% | 85.3% | 73.1% | 65.1% | 76.5% | 32.3% | 54.4% | 15% | 11% | 38.6% |
| Qatar (QAT) | 55.3% | 85.3% | 85.5% | 68.2% | 77.8% | 27.3% | 52.8% | 13.2% | 4.1% | 37.2% |
| Netherlands (NLD) | 85.8% | 85% | 66.5% | 60.1% | 62% | 21.4% | 51.8% | 14.8% | 12.6% | 38.1% |
| Japan (JPN) | 86.8% | 84.7% | 66.3% | 69.4% | 60.3% | 54% | 18.9% | 30.1% | 27% | 37.3% |
| New Zealand (NZL) | 88.7% | 83.7% | 63.9% | 61.6% | 60.8% | 26.7% | 58% | 12.4% | 17.4% | 33.8% |
| Spain (ESP) | 87.1% | 83.7% | 65.2% | 59.3% | 57.6% | 27.3% | 52% | 12.6% | 15.8% | 38.4% |
| Portugal (PRT) | 89.4% | 83.4% | 61.5% | 60.3% | 58.2% | 32.6% | 43.6% | 12.8% | 15.6% | 40.6% |
| Ecuador (ECU) | 92.4% | 83.2% | 61.7% | 68.2% | 52.6% | 31.9% | 33.5% | 28.7% | 17.7% | 47% |
| Puerto Rico (PRI) | 97.7% | 83% | 59.3% | 60.9% | 57.8% | 28.6% | 30.2% | 15.8% | 9.2% | 34.8% |
| Austria (AUT) | 90.5% | 82.9% | 66% | 63% | 62.1% | 33.1% | 45.8% | 17.9% | 12.9% | 41.6% |
| South Korea (KOR) | 82.2% | 82.7% | 77.1% | 66% | 65.9% | 57.9% | 23.4% | 18.5% | 20.1% | 44.2% |
| Taiwan (TWN) | 77.9% | 82.4% | 74% | 59.5% | 60.5% | 36.4% | 22.9% | 14.3% | 22.2% | 45.6% |
| Denmark (DNK) | 77.2% | 82% | 64.8% | 55.9% | 58.4% | 17.9% | 56.8% | 11.3% | 6.1% | 37.3% |
| United Kingdom (GBR) | 83.2% | 81.1% | 60.2% | 53.8% | 56.6% | 18.5% | 47% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 36.9% |
| China (CHN) | 63.8% | 80.9% | 59.9% | 54.6% | 53.2% | 31.1% | 21.2% | 17.5% | 12.5% | 38.9% |
| Slovenia (SVN) | 78.1% | 80.2% | 68.9% | 56% | 55.2% | 26.7% | 37.9% | 11.4% | 5.2% | 37.5% |
| Czechia (CZE) | 83.1% | 80% | 64.5% | 54.9% | 50.3% | 23.2% | 46.1% | 12.3% | 7.2% | 36.6% |
| Ireland (IRL) | 88.4% | 80% | 55.9% | 58.6% | 56.1% | 22.7% | 56.4% | 12.9% | 12.8% | 32.2% |
| Turkey (TUR) | 80.6% | 78.6% | 60.9% | 52.9% | 45.3% | 17.1% | 33.1% | 10.1% | 14.2% | 39% |
| Saudi Arabia (SAU) | 65.3% | 78.4% | 65.6% | 49% | 59.3% | 44.1% | 50.9% | 12.9% | 16% | 53% |
| Croatia (HRV) | 75.1% | 77.9% | 65.3% | 52% | 48.2% | 21.3% | 37.6% | 13.6% | 12.2% | 36.8% |
| Cuba (CUB) | 56.1% | 77.7% | 64% | 46.4% | — | 26.2% | 59.6% | 18.2% | — | 39.8% |
| Indonesia (IDN) | 43.5% | 77.7% | 65.1% | 28.1% | 58% | 18.4% | 39.8% | 12.2% | 19.9% | 39.9% |
| Chile (CHL) | 88.7% | 77.1% | 50.9% | 43.3% | 37.7% | 18% | 16.1% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 32.2% |
| Argentina (ARG) | 86.6% | 76.6% | 50.6% | 40.6% | 31% | 16% | 90% | 11.9% | 24.2% | 29.7% |
| Malta (MLT) | 84.8% | 76.3% | 63.1% | 56% | 48.1% | 18% | 19% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 33.1% |
| Colombia (COL) | 78.6% | 76.1% | 59.3% | 43.3% | — | 16.6% | 20.1% | 9% | 5.3% | 31.1% |
| Romania (ROU) | 79.5% | 75% | 69.1% | 58.4% | 46.8% | 22.1% | 41.2% | 16.2% | 2.3% | 40.5% |
| Poland (POL) | 74.1% | 74.1% | 53% | 50.1% | 46.9% | 18.6% | 49% | 13.4% | 10.4% | 34.3% |
| Bulgaria (BGR) | 53.4% | 73.9% | 53% | 47% | 40.8% | 12.9% | 25% | 6.3% | 5% | 35.4% |
| Estonia (EST) | 73.2% | 72.4% | 66.7% | 51.7% | 48.9% | 22.8% | 38.4% | 11.9% | 8.7% | 38.7% |
| Lithuania (LTU) | 92.4% | 72.1% | 61.3% | 51.5% | 48.3% | 26% | 44.7% | 7.7% | 11.3% | 35.8% |
| Slovakia (SVK) | 66% | 72.1% | 58.8% | 49.9% | 44% | 19.7% | 37.2% | 10.7% | 5.3% | 33.9% |
| Thailand (THA) | 57.7% | 71.3% | 55.9% | 50.4% | 39.7% | 12.4% | 21.1% | 13.5% | 7.8% | 41.1% |
| Latvia (LVA) | 73.9% | 71.1% | 55.4% | 45.3% | 38.6% | 22.8% | 54.5% | 16.2% | 6.4% | 35.6% |
| Russia (RUS) | 69.6% | 70.6% | 54.9% | 40.6% | 30.4% | 19.9% | 42% | 15.7% | 9.4% | 40.4% |
| Tunisia (TUN) | 100% | 68.4% | 42.4% | 67.6% | 78.5% | 49% | 26.5% | 10.3% | — | 47.8% |
| Malaysia (MYS) | 66.4% | 67.8% | 55.2% | 53.3% | 42.5% | 24.2% | 12.1% | 10.7% | 13.3% | 42.9% |
| India (IND) | 58.1% | 60.4% | 45.8% | 37.3% | 29.4% | 18.7% | 6% | 9.6% | 4.3% | 13.9% |
| Algeria (DZA) | 58.5% | 59.8% | 55.1% | 57.2% | 45.5% | 10.3% | 13.6% | 14.8% | 17.5% | 41.8% |
| Mongolia (MNG) | 39.6% | 56.5% | 59.5% | 30.6% | 15.9% | 15.1% | 35.6% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 52.1% |
| South Africa (ZAF) | 100% | 53.4% | 54.9% | — | — | — | — | 19% | 10.2% | 90.9% |
| Jordan (JOR) | 27.4% | 43.1% | 10.3% | 48.1% | 21.4% | 28.8% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 17.1% | 8% |
| Uruguay (URY) | — | — | — | 53.4% | 49.4% | — | — | 9.1% | — | — |
👉 Hover over any table cell to inspect detailed national survival telemetry, global benchmark delta, and clinical tier.
The Epidemiological Divergence Model (1990–2019)
Interactive dual-metric trajectory simulator. Decoupling the -15.22% biological risk decline (Age-Standardized Death Rate per 100k) from the +75.32% absolute mortality surge driven by demographic senior cohort expansion.
Age-Standardized Rate: 125.41 deaths per 100k
💡 Hover anywhere across the chart to inspect yearly sneak-peek telemetry, mortality rates, and variance vs 1990 baseline.
Global Cancer Mortality Composition (2019 Surveillance)
Decomposing 9.67 Million fatalities across 29 malignancy classifications. Interactive dynamic Donut Slice Analyzer and 29-Neoplasm Taxonomy Distribution Bar Graph with direct hover telemetry.
Macroeconomic Econometrics • 186 Sovereign Nations
GDP per Capita vs Cancer Mortality Elasticity
Empirical 2D logarithmic scatter analysis demonstrating the non-linear relationship between national purchasing power ($PPP) and age-standardized cancer mortality rates.
GDP: $2,065.04 PPP • Cancer Mortality: 153.3 deaths / 100k
High-income nations plateau at 110–130/100k due to early clinical intervention and broad registry coverage.
Middle-income nations experience high cancer mortality (140–208/100k) due to tobacco uptake and late diagnosis.
Deceptively low reported rates (<90/100k) reflect pathology shortages and registry latency rather than lower incidence.
Etiology & Longitudinal Risk Surveillance • 1990–2019
Tobacco Attribution vs Total Cancer Mortality Trajectory
Decoupling behavioral smoking-attributable cancer deaths (+60.2% surge to 2.49M) from total global cancer mortality (+75.3% to 9.67M) and primary lung neoplasms (+91.8% to 2.04M) across three decades of demographic expansion.
Tobacco Attribution Benchmarks & Country Rankings
| Timeline | Total Cancer Deaths | Tobacco-Attributed | Lung Malignancies | Smoking Share (%) | Growth vs 1990 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 (Base) | 5.52M | 1.55M | 1.07M | 28.13% | Baseline |
| 1995 | 6.15M | 1.73M | 1.20M | 28.22% | +11.8% ▲ |
| 2000 | 6.73M | 1.87M | 1.32M | 27.84% | +20.7% ▲ |
| 2005 | 7.35M | 2.03M | 1.49M | 27.60% | +30.8% ▲ |
| 2010 | 8.00M | 2.16M | 1.67M | 27.04% | +39.3% ▲ |
| 2015 | 8.76M | 2.30M | 1.84M | 26.21% | +48.0% ▲ |
| 2019 (Latest) | 9.67M | 2.49M | 2.04M | 25.70% | +60.2% ▲ |
Executive Summary & Epidemiological Baseline:
- Core Paradox: Global cancer deaths expanded by +75.32% (5.52M to 9.67M) between 1990 and 2019. However, after controlling for demographic aging, the Age-Standardized Death Rate (ASDR) actually declined by -15.22% (147.93 to 125.41 per 100k).
- Technical Solution: Ingested 281,440 panel records across 26 Our World in Data / IHME registries, decomposing demographic expansion from biological mortality trends across 204 countries and 29 malignancy sites.
- Quantified Impact: Discovered an Eastern European high-mortality cluster (Hungary #1 at 208.5/100k), modeled non-linear GDP elasticity (R² = 0.64), and benchmarked national 5-year survival disparities (e.g. South Korea's 68.9% stomach survival vs UK's 20.5%).
01. Global Epidemiological Telemetry Matrix (1990–2019)
Cancer accounts for approximately 1 in 6 deaths globally. Controlling for population aging reveals significant divergence between raw mortality counts and age-standardized biological risk:
| Global Epidemiological Metric | 1990 Baseline | 2019 Baseline | 30-Year Delta | Clinical & Public Health Significance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Absolute Fatalities | 5.52 Million | 9.67 Million | +75.32% ▲ | Driven by demographic expansion and aging population cohorts |
| Age-Standardized Rate (ASDR) | 147.93 / 100k | 125.41 / 100k | -15.22% ▼ | True age-adjusted biological risk is falling globally |
| Leading Global Malignancy | Lung (1.07M) | Lung (2.04M) | +91.77% ▲ | Single most lethal neoplasm worldwide |
| Tobacco-Attributed Share | 27.42% | 24.68% | -2.74% ▼ | Smoking remains the dominant behavioral carcinogenic driver |
02. Multi-File Panel Ingestion & Data Hygiene Protocol
The raw data architecture comprises 26 CSV datasets totaling 20.3 MB with heterogeneous temporal spans. The Python ETL pipeline (scripts/process_cancer_data.py) executes 4 structured phases:
| Pipeline Stage | Input Grain | Transformation Protocol | Output Deliverable |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01. Ingestion & Filtering | 26 Raw CSV Files (281.4k Rows) | Filter pre-1990 back-projections & extract ISO-3 entities | Cleaned panel subset (204 nations) |
| 02. Metric Harmonization | Multi-unit records (ASDR, Counts, GDP) | Harmonize rates per 100k, calculate 30-yr deltas | Standardized panel matrix |
| 03. Relational Aggregation | Multi-table joins across 29 neoplasms | Compute cross-country rankings & CONCORD-3 survival | Multi-dimensional matrix tables |
| 04. Master Static Payload | In-memory relational models | Export zero-dependency precomputed JSON | cancer_epidemiology_master.json (<86 KB) |
03. Thirty-Year Longitudinal Trends & Age-Standardized Trajectories
Absolute global cancer fatalities expanded across nearly every major organ site due to increased life expectancy:
| Malignancy Site / Neoplasm | 1990 Global Deaths | 2019 Global Deaths | 30-Year Growth | 2019 Share (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Lung & Bronchus | 1,065,139 | 2,042,640 | +91.77% ▲ | 21.12% |
| 2. Colorectal | 518,126 | 1,085,797 | +109.56% ▲ | 11.23% |
| 3. Stomach | 788,317 | 957,002 | +21.40% ▲ | 9.90% |
| 4. Liver | 365,215 | 484,577 | +32.68% ▲ | 5.01% |
| 5. Breast | 380,905 | 700,660 | +83.95% ▲ | 7.24% |
| 6. Esophageal | 319,332 | 498,067 | +55.97% ▲ | 5.15% |
| 7. Pancreatic | 198,051 | 531,107 | +168.17% ▲ | 5.49% |
| 8. Prostate | 232,999 | 486,837 | +108.94% ▲ | 5.03% |
| 9. Cervical | 184,527 | 280,479 | +52.00% ▲ | 2.90% |
| 10. Leukemia | 263,263 | 394,543 | +49.87% ▲ | 4.08% |
| All Other 19 Sites | 1,200,716 | 2,209,822 | +84.04% ▲ | 22.85% |
| TOTAL GLOBAL CANCER | 5,516,590 | 9,671,471 | +75.32% ▲ | 100.00% |
Etiological Insight: Pancreatic cancer showed the fastest mortality expansion (+168.17%), driven by lack of early screening modalities and rising metabolic risks. Conversely, Stomach cancer grew slowest (+21.40%), reflecting food refrigeration adoption and *Helicobacter pylori* eradication.
04. Cross-National Disparities & Eastern European Mortality Clustering
Evaluating 2019 Age-Standardized Death Rates across 204 sovereign nations reveals distinct geographic risk clustering:
| Rank | Sovereign Nation | Region / Geographic Belt | 2019 ASDR (/100k) | vs Global Baseline (125.4) | Primary Epidemiological Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #01 | Hungary | Eastern Europe | 208.52 / 100k | +66.27% ▲ | Historical male smoking & delayed oncology presentation |
| #02 | Mongolia | East Asia | 204.14 / 100k | +62.78% ▲ | High Hepatitis B/C prevalence & highest global liver cancer ASDR |
| #03 | Serbia | Southeastern Europe | 198.86 / 100k | +58.57% ▲ | Elevated lung & colorectal burdens; high per-capita smoking |
| #04 | Montenegro | Southeastern Europe | 196.22 / 100k | +56.46% ▲ | Persistent tobacco prevalence & diagnostic latency |
| #05 | Slovakia | Central/Eastern Europe | 191.45 / 100k | +52.66% ▲ | High colorectal & gastric mortality clusters |
| #06 | Poland | Central/Eastern Europe | 186.30 / 100k | +48.55% ▲ | Elevated tobacco attribution; historical screening gaps |
| #07 | Croatia | Southeastern Europe | 184.90 / 100k | +47.44% ▲ | High male lung cancer incidence |
| #08 | Greenland | Northern Atlantic | 182.10 / 100k | +45.20% ▲ | Geographic isolation & elevated baseline smoking |
| #09 | Slovenia | Central/Southern Europe | 179.80 / 100k | +43.37% ▲ | Accelerated aging combined with tobacco exposure |
| #10 | Czechia | Central Europe | 177.65 / 100k | +41.66% ▲ | Elevated colorectal & renal cell carcinoma clusters |
05. Cancer Site Etiology & Behavioral Risk Attribution
The top 3 cancer sites (Lung, Colorectal, Stomach) account for 42.2% of all cancer deaths worldwide:
| Cancer Site Category | 2019 Global Deaths | Global Mortality Share | Primary Etiological & Risk Factor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lung & Bronchus | 2,042,640 | 21.12% | Direct tobacco smoking & environmental PM2.5 particulates |
| Colorectal | 1,085,797 | 11.23% | Processed dietary patterns, metabolic obesity & screening latency |
| Stomach | 957,002 | 9.90% | *Helicobacter pylori* infection, dietary sodium & preservation nitrates |
| Breast | 700,660 | 7.24% | Hormonal exposure, reproductive factors & screening accessibility |
| All Other 25 Sites | 4,885,372 | 50.51% | Combined organ-specific carcinogenic etiologies |
06. Socio-Economic Elasticity: GDP per Capita vs Cancer Mortality
Evaluating GDP per Capita ($PPP) against Age-Standardized Death Rates across 186 nations exhibits a non-linear economic curve:
| Income Tier & GDP Range | Observed ASDR Range | Epidemiological Mechanism | Public Health Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 1: Low-Income (< $5,000) | 100 – 120 / 100k | Diagnostic under-reporting & infectious disease competition | Younger median age; infectious diseases mask underlying oncological incidence. |
| Tier 2: Industrializing ($10k – $40k) | 160 – 210 / 100k | Rapid lifestyle shift & elevated behavioral risks | Increased tobacco & sedentary exposure without proportional early screening. |
| Tier 3: High-Income (> $50,000) | 110 – 130 / 100k | Universal screening & therapeutic innovation | High incidence offset by early mammography, colonoscopy, and targeted therapies. |
07. 5-Year Clinical Survival Heterogeneity Matrix (CONCORD-3)
Based on CONCORD-3 clinical registry data covering 59 nations:
| Malignancy Type | Global Mean 5-Yr Survival | High-Performing Benchmark | Low-Performing Registry | Key Clinical Determinant |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Testicular | 95.2% | USA (96.8%) | India (82.1%) | Cisplatin chemotherapy responsiveness |
| 2. Thyroid | 89.4% | Japan (92.5%) | Brazil (78.2%) | Early indolent nodule ultrasound detection |
| 3. Prostate | 86.5% | USA (98.0%) | Poland (72.4%) | PSA screening & anti-androgen therapies |
| 4. Breast | 82.4% | Australia (89.5%) | Russia (68.1%) | Population mammography & HER2 targeted drugs |
| 5. Colorectal | 61.8% | S. Korea (71.8%) | India (40.2%) | Colonoscopy polypectomy & adjuvant chemotherapy |
| 6. Cervical | 64.2% | Japan (73.2%) | China (58.4%) | HPV cytology screening & early brachytherapy |
| 7. Stomach | 31.5% | S. Korea (68.9%) | UK (20.5%) | National endoscopic mass screening program |
| 8. Lung & Bronchus | 17.8% | Japan (32.9%) | Poland (13.4%) | Low-dose CT screening & EGFR/ALK inhibitors |
| 9. Liver | 16.2% | S. Korea (30.1%) | Germany (14.2%) | HBV surveillance & surgical resection |
| 10. Pancreatic | 8.4% | USA (11.5%) | India (4.2%) | Asymptomatic latency & early systemic metastasis |
08. Strategic Epidemiological Lessons
- Age-Standardization Is Essential: Unadjusted totals conflate demographic longevity with clinical failure.
- Early Screening Drives Survival Leaps: South Korea's 68.9% stomach survival (vs UK's 20.5%) demonstrates that mass endoscopic screening transforms lethal malignancies into treatable conditions.
- Multi-Decade Latency in Tobacco Control: Behavioral risk interventions require 20–30 years to fully materialize in population-level oncology outcomes.
Impact
Demonstrated that global age-standardized cancer mortality fell by -15.22% (147.93 to 125.41 per 100k) despite absolute deaths surging from 5.52M to 9.67M. Identified Eastern Europe as the highest-burden mortality belt (Hungary #1 at 208.5/100k), modeled logarithmic GDP elasticity across 186 nations, and benchmarked 5-year survival disparities.
Lessons
- Age-standardization is mandatory in public health economics: unadjusted totals conflate demographic longevity with clinical failure.
- Economic prosperity drives a non-linear cancer transition: diagnostic capacity rises with GDP before therapeutic interventions flatten ASDR.